Temperatures reached 28.4°C in Formentera and 26.7°C in Ibiza on Wednesday, 14 October, before a forecast change brought the prospect of rain, lower temperatures and stronger winds from the weekend.

Ibiza and Formentera experienced unusually warm conditions for mid-October, with maximum temperatures approaching 30°C on Wednesday, 14 October 2026. The warmth came almost a month after the start of autumn, with temperatures remaining above the seasonal levels expected for this time of year.

However, the weather was forecast to change significantly from Saturday, 17 October, as an unsettled weather system approached the Pitiusas. Forecasts indicated the possibility of heavy rainfall, falling temperatures and strong winds, with the most significant part of the episode expected on Sunday and Monday.

Temperatures Reach 28.4°C in Formentera

The highest temperatures reported on Wednesday reached 28.4°C in Formentera and 26.7°C in Ibiza.

According to a statement from Spain's State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), the average maximum temperature was 26.8°C, approximately 3.3°C above the expected level for the time of year.

The figures reflected the persistence of warmer-than-usual conditions across the islands despite a slight decrease in temperatures compared with previous weeks.

A Sharp Change in the Weather Expected From Saturday

The forecast pointed to a substantial change beginning on Saturday, 17 October, although the precise timing of the arrival of the rain was still uncertain.

Romualdo Romero, a researcher with the Meteorology Group at the University of the Balearic Islands (UIB), said the change was expected to be abrupt, with the most significant phase anticipated on Sunday and Monday.

The forecast included the possibility of heavy rainfall, a considerable drop in temperatures and stronger easterly and northeasterly winds.

The conditions were consistent with a typical autumn low-pressure system, although the precise distribution and intensity of the rainfall remained subject to forecast updates.

Experts Do Not Confirm a Mediterranean Hurricane

The possibility of a medicane, a Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone, was also discussed in the context of the developing weather situation.

However, Romero explicitly cautioned against describing the forecast system as a medicane. He said it was a typical autumn depression capable of producing heavy rain, while leaving open the possibility that subsequent forecast models might show indications of a different development.

The distinction is important because the possibility of intense rainfall does not, by itself, establish that a tropical-like cyclone will form.

Residents and Visitors Should Follow Updated Forecasts

The expected transition from warm autumn conditions to unsettled weather could affect outdoor plans and travel across Ibiza and Formentera over the weekend.

Residents and visitors should follow updated forecasts from AEMET and pay attention to any official weather warnings issued for the islands.

The forecast published on 15 October indicated a change beginning on Saturday, with Sunday and Monday expected to be the main period of concern. The timing, intensity and local impact of the rainfall would depend on how the weather system developed.