Economists involved in the recently presented Informe Fènix have raised concerns that further expansion of Ibiza Airport could add to the demographic and economic pressures already affecting the island.

The warning came during the presentation of the Informe Fènix at the Ibiza headquarters of the Universitat de les Illes Balears on Wednesday, September 16, where economists Miquel Puig and Guillem López-Casasnovas discussed the study’s findings and their relevance to the Balearic Islands and the Pitiusas.

The report itself is primarily an analysis of the Catalan economy. However, it includes comparisons with the Balearic Islands, and the Ibiza presentation used its economic framework to examine the island’s rapid population growth, productivity, employment and tourism model.

A Report Originally Focused on Catalonia

The Informe Fènix was published in May 2026 after being prepared by a team coordinated by Xavier Roig.

Its redaction team includes economists Xavier Cuadras Morató, Modest Guinjoan and Miquel Puig, while Jordi Galí, Guillem López-Casasnovas and Jaume Ventura are listed as advisers.

The report examines economic growth, productivity, population changes and GDP per capita, arguing that strong headline economic growth does not necessarily mean that material prosperity is improving at the same pace.

The document compares Catalonia with several other European and Spanish economies, including the Balearic Islands.

According to the report, the Balearics have experienced particularly strong population growth since 2000 while recording relatively weak growth in GDP per capita compared with some other regions. The report also identifies tourism as an important part of the explanation for the Balearic economic model.

What the Economists Said About Ibiza

At the Ibiza presentation, the discussion moved from the wider Balearic economic picture to the situation on the island itself.

Guillem López-Casasnovas pointed to the substantial increase in Ibiza’s resident population over the past quarter-century, while Miquel Puig argued that much of the growth had been generated through increasing the number of people working rather than through sufficient gains in productivity.

The economists questioned whether continued growth in tourism and population necessarily results in greater prosperity for existing residents.

During the discussion, López-Casasnovas directly addressed the proposed airport expansion and argued that increasing the infrastructure could intensify the pressures already associated with the island’s current growth model.

Puig similarly argued for a tourism model based on greater productivity and higher-value employment rather than simply increasing visitor numbers. These are the economists’ interpretations and recommendations, not an independent assessment of the airport project.

Population Growth Is at the Centre of the Debate

Population was one of the main themes of the presentation.

The figures cited during the Ibiza event show a dramatic increase in the island’s resident population since the beginning of the century. Historical census data recorded 88,076 residents on Ibiza in 2001, while the latest figure cited during the presentation was 167,988 for 2026.

That represents an increase of roughly 91% over the period.

The economists used this growth to discuss the relationship between a larger workforce, economic output and GDP per capita.

Their argument is that an economy can become considerably larger in total while the benefits experienced by residents do not necessarily increase at the same rate.

What the Informe Fènix Says About the Balearics

The original report does not contain a detailed economic study of Ibiza.

It does, however, specifically compare the Balearic Islands with Catalonia and other economies. In its analysis of 2000 to 2024, the report identifies the Balearics as having particularly strong demographic growth alongside relatively weak GDP-per-capita growth.

The report also argues that tourism contributed positively to productivity in the Balearics in earlier decades but that this relationship changed after 2000.

These conclusions belong to the authors of the Informe Fènix and form part of their wider economic interpretation of productivity, population and tourism.

The Airport Debate Has Now Entered a Wider Economic Discussion

The timing of the presentation is significant.

Spain’s Council of Ministers approved the new DORA III airport regulation document on September 15, covering the period from 2027 to 2031.

The plan provides around €1.03 billion for the four main Balearic airports, including €229.7 million for Ibiza. The official traffic scenario included in the new framework forecasts Ibiza reaching approximately 9.72 million passengers in 2031.

That compares with 9,138,224 passengers recorded at Ibiza Airport in 2025.

The figures have added another dimension to the island’s ongoing discussion about airport infrastructure and tourism growth.

What Aena Says the Ibiza Project Will Do

Aena presents the Ibiza airport project primarily as a major modernisation of the terminal.

The company says the works are needed to adapt the airport to new European security and border-control requirements, improve passenger processing and upgrade the passenger experience.

The project includes a centralised passport-control system, new facilities for non-Schengen passengers, upgraded security equipment and improvements to inter-island flights.

One of the most visible changes will be the increase in boarding gates from 17 to 32. Aena explains that this does not simply represent a doubling of traffic capacity because Schengen and non-Schengen gates cannot be used interchangeably in the same way. It says additional gates are necessary to serve the two categories of passengers appropriately.

The project also includes eight new boarding bridges, allowing the proportion of high-season operations using direct passenger access to aircraft to rise from around 25% to as much as 75%, according to Aena.

€229.7 Million for Ibiza Between 2027 and 2031

The newly approved DORA III allocates €229.7 million to Ibiza Airport over the five-year regulatory period.

The investment is part of the wider €1.03 billion earmarked for the Balearic airport network.

According to the published breakdown, Ibiza’s allocation will cover measures including security-control upgrades, border-control adaptations, a new access arrangement for the non-Schengen boarding area and work on the airport’s airfield and apron.

The wider DORA III programme involves almost €13 billion of investment across Aena’s Spanish airport network through 2031. The Spanish Government says the investment is intended to improve infrastructure, security, accessibility, passenger flows and the ability of airports to respond to future demand.

The Passenger Forecast

The airport expansion debate has intensified partly because DORA III contains a future passenger scenario for Ibiza.

The official forecast rises from 9.17 million passengers in 2027 to 9.72 million in 2031.

That represents an increase of around 550,000 annual passengers over the four-year period.

Compared with Ibiza Airport’s actual 2025 total of 9.138 million passengers, the 2031 scenario is approximately 6% higher.

It is important to distinguish between a traffic forecast and a legal passenger limit. The forecast describes the traffic scenario used for airport planning; it does not itself create a new statutory cap on the number of passengers Ibiza can receive.

Why the Economists Are Raising the Question

The central issue raised by the economists is not simply whether Ibiza Airport needs better infrastructure.

Instead, they are questioning what additional airport capacity could mean within the island’s wider economic model.

Their concern is that infrastructure designed to accommodate continued growth could contribute to further population, tourism and employment growth without automatically improving productivity or material living standards for residents.

That interpretation is consistent with the broader thesis of the Informe Fènix, which argues that economic growth measured in total GDP needs to be considered alongside GDP per capita, productivity and the quality of employment.

A Debate About More Than the Airport

The discussion in Ibiza comes at a moment when questions about tourism growth, housing, mobility, public services and the island’s carrying pressures are increasingly linked together.

The airport is one part of that discussion because it represents a major gateway for visitors and residents.

At the same time, the reasons given by Aena for the project include regulatory compliance, security, passenger processing and operational improvements, meaning the planned works cannot simply be described as a project designed solely to increase tourism.

That distinction is central to understanding the debate.

Protest Planned for September 20

The airport expansion is also the subject of a public demonstration scheduled for Sunday, September 20.

The protest was called by the Associació de Joves d’Eivissa and is scheduled to begin at 6pm at Vara de Rey before continuing through central Ibiza and reaching the Consell.

The organisers oppose the planned increase in boarding gates and other elements of the airport project, while arguing that further airport growth could increase pressure on the island’s territory and public services.

Other organisations and groups have subsequently announced their support for the mobilisation.

At the same time, the position of Aena is that the planned works are required to modernise the airport, comply with European requirements and improve its ability to process passengers safely and efficiently.

A Question About Ibiza’s Future

The presentation of the Informe Fènix has added an economic dimension to what has already become a major debate about Ibiza Airport.

The airport project involves substantial investment and significant changes to the terminal, while the new DORA III framework anticipates continued passenger growth through 2031.

For the economists who presented the Informe Fènix in Ibiza, the question is whether that additional growth would translate into greater prosperity for the people living on the island.

For Aena, the project is primarily a long-term modernisation programme designed to meet regulatory requirements, improve airport operations and respond to future demand.

As Ibiza prepares for the next stage of the airport project, the discussion is therefore extending beyond terminals and boarding gates to a much larger question: how should the island balance connectivity, tourism, infrastructure and the economic wellbeing of its residents?