Ibiza and Formentera are heading into an autumn that is expected to be warmer than normal, according to the latest forecast from Spain's State Meteorological Agency, AEMET, following an exceptionally hot and unusually dry summer.

The forecast comes after the summer of 2026 was confirmed as the hottest on record in the Pitiusas since comparable records began in 1961.

AEMET expects temperatures to remain above the 1991-2020 average during the autumn period, while rainfall is forecast to be broadly within normal levels.

For Ibiza, the prediction points to another season of relatively mild conditions, with the possibility of the familiar warm spells that often extend the island's summer atmosphere well into September and October.

Autumn Begins on September 23

The astronomical autumn will officially begin on Wednesday, September 23, 2026, at 2:05am.

The season will continue until December 21, when winter begins.

According to AEMET's forecast, temperatures during the October-to-December period are expected to remain above the long-term average.

The agency uses the 1991-2020 period as its current climatological reference for seasonal comparisons.

For Ibiza, the average temperature across the three-month period is expected to be above 15°C, while Formentera is forecast to average more than 16°C.

October Could Still Feel Like Summer

The transition into autumn is expected to be gradual rather than abrupt.

AEMET forecasts an average temperature of around 19°C for Ibiza in October, falling to approximately 15°C in November and 12°C in December.

Formentera is expected to be slightly warmer, with average temperatures of around 20°C in October, 16°C in November and 13°C in December.

These figures are seasonal averages rather than daily forecasts, meaning individual days can be considerably warmer or cooler.

The outlook nevertheless suggests that the early part of autumn could continue to bring pleasant conditions across the islands.

Warm Spells Are Still Expected

AEMET's Balearic spokesperson María José Guerrero has highlighted the likelihood of the traditional warm spells known in Spain as "veranillos", particularly during September and October.

These periods can bring several days of unusually warm and settled weather even after the calendar has moved into autumn.

For Ibiza, that can mean beach days and outdoor activities continuing well beyond the conventional end of summer.

However, the forecast does not mean that the entire autumn will remain summery. Temperatures are expected to decline progressively as the season advances.

Rainfall Is Expected to Return to More Normal Levels

The temperature outlook contrasts sharply with the rainfall situation during the summer.

AEMET expects autumn precipitation in Ibiza and Formentera to be around normal levels for the season.

Ibiza typically receives approximately 237 litres of rain per square metre during the October-to-December period.

Formentera's seasonal average is around 139 litres per square metre.

The seasonal prediction indicates rainfall broadly in line with those normal values, although the timing and intensity of individual rain events cannot be predicted months in advance.

Storms Can Still Be Intense in Early Autumn

Normal seasonal rainfall does not mean that Ibiza should expect gentle rain spread evenly across three months.

AEMET points out that the first half of autumn in the Balearics is traditionally capable of producing intense weather events.

Heavy showers and thunderstorms can bring torrential rainfall, hail, strong wind gusts, waterspouts and other severe localised phenomena.

The second half of the season tends to favour more widespread and generally moderate rainfall.

For Ibiza residents and visitors, that means the transition from summer to autumn can involve some very different weather patterns within a relatively short period.

The Summer of 2026 Was Exceptional

The autumn forecast follows one of the most remarkable summers ever recorded in the Pitiusas.

AEMET says the summer of 2026 was the hottest on record in both Ibiza and Formentera.

Ibiza recorded an average summer temperature of 26.9°C, while Formentera reached 27.3°C.

Both islands were around 2.5°C above their respective normal values.

The season also produced several other records associated with persistent heat.

Three Heatwaves Hit the Pitiusas

For the first time since records began, Ibiza and Formentera experienced three separate heatwaves during the same summer.

One occurred from July 6 to 9.

Two further periods occurred in August, from August 7 to 9 and from August 14 to 20.

During the July heatwave, temperatures reached 40.2°C in Sant Joan de Labritja and Sant Antoni de Portmany.

That became the highest temperature recorded in Ibiza during the summer.

A further heat record was recorded in Sant Joan on September 6, when the maximum temperature reached 39.2°C.

Sant Joan Recorded Exceptional Heat

Sant Joan de Labritja experienced one of the most notable temperature trends of the summer.

Its average summer temperature reached 26.8°C, making 2026 the hottest summer recorded at the station since its series began in 1993.

The station also recorded record average temperatures during both July and August.

July reached a mean of 27.8°C, while August reached 28°C.

The figures demonstrate that the exceptional heat was not confined to one isolated extreme-temperature event.

July Was Particularly Extreme

July was the hottest month of the summer in terms of its departure from normal conditions.

Ibiza's average temperature reached 27.9°C, 2.8°C above normal.

Formentera recorded an average of 28.3°C, around 2.9°C above its long-term average.

The month was also exceptionally dry, with no measurable rainfall recorded across Ibiza and Formentera during July in the cited observations.

AEMET's national analysis confirmed July 2026 as the warmest July on record in Spain, tied with July 2022 when considering the broader series, and the Balearics were among the areas most strongly affected.

August Continued the Heat

August did little to break the pattern.

Ibiza's average temperature was approximately 28.2°C and Formentera's reached 28.6°C.

The monthly anomaly was around +2.4°C in Ibiza and +2.5°C in Formentera.

AEMET also recorded numerous stations across the Balearic Islands reaching exceptional temperature values during the month.

At the national level, August 2026 was the sixth-warmest August in Spain since records began, while the Balearic Islands experienced particularly intense heat.

September Has Started Warm

The summer heat also continued into September.

During the first ten days of the month, Ibiza recorded an average temperature of approximately 27.3°C, around 2.8°C above normal.

This period included a new maximum-temperature record at Sant Joan de Labritja, where 39.2°C was recorded on September 6.

The figures illustrate how the exceptionally warm conditions of 2026 have extended beyond the conventional June-to-August summer period.

Nights Have Become Increasingly Hot

The summer was also notable for unusually warm nights.

Ibiza recorded significantly more tropical nights than normal, with temperatures remaining at or above 20°C.

The island of Formentera recorded 80 tropical nights during the summer, compared with a normal value of around 67.

Eivissa recorded 75, compared with a normal 57, while the airport recorded 74 compared with a normal 56.

Sant Antoni recorded 67 tropical nights, compared with an average of around 49.

More "Torrid" Nights Too

The number of nights when temperatures remained above 25°C also increased sharply.

These are classed as "torrid nights" and can be particularly uncomfortable because temperatures fail to fall sufficiently for the human body to cool down.

Formentera recorded 22 such nights during the summer, compared with a normal seven.

The airport of Ibiza recorded 15, compared with a normal three.

The figures provide another indication that the exceptional nature of the summer was not simply about extreme afternoon temperatures.

The Summer Was Also Extremely Dry

Alongside the heat, the Pitiusas experienced a major rainfall deficit.

Ibiza received approximately 82% less rain than normal during the summer.

Formentera's rainfall deficit was around 49%.

The result was the seventh-driest summer recorded in Ibiza over the past 75 years.

The combination of exceptionally high temperatures and very low rainfall created additional pressure on vegetation, agriculture and water resources across the islands.

A Few Storms Provided Some Relief

Despite the dry conditions overall, the summer did include several storm events.

AEMET recorded nine days with thunderstorms across the Pitiusas, compared with an average of around six.

There were also significant rain events, including heavy storms in August and the intense weather system that affected Ibiza and Formentera in early September.

These episodes demonstrate the Mediterranean climate's tendency to produce short periods of very intense rainfall even during an otherwise dry season.

Rissagas Were Also Recorded

Another unusual weather phenomenon during the summer was the occurrence of several "rissagas", sudden changes in sea level that can affect harbours and coastal areas.

Four were recorded in the port of Sant Antoni during the summer.

Rissagas can produce rapid fluctuations in harbour water levels and may create difficult conditions for boats and waterfront infrastructure.

The phenomenon is particularly associated with the Balearics and can occur under specific atmospheric conditions.

What Does the Autumn Forecast Mean for Ibiza?

For residents, the forecast points towards a relatively gentle transition away from summer.

The warm conditions are likely to continue into September and October, with average temperatures expected to remain above normal.

For tourism, that could support continued outdoor activity and extend the period of favourable weather beyond the traditional peak season.

For the natural environment, however, the most important question may be rainfall.

After such a dry summer, a return to normal autumn precipitation would be significant, particularly for vegetation and water reserves.

A Warmer Autumn Does Not Mean Constant Heat

Seasonal forecasts describe probabilities and broad trends rather than predicting the weather on individual days.

AEMET's forecast indicates that the October-to-December period is more likely than normal to fall into the warmer category.

It does not mean every day will be warm or that Ibiza will experience another summer-like heatwave throughout autumn.

Cold fronts, storms and periods of unsettled weather can still occur.

The forecast simply indicates that, when averaged over the season, temperatures are expected to be higher than the reference-period average.

The Wider Spanish Picture Is Also Warm

The outlook for the Pitiusas forms part of a broader national pattern.

AEMET says Spain experienced its hottest summer on record in 2026.

Across mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands, there were 61 days affected by heatwave conditions during the summer.

That exceeded the previous record of 41 days recorded in 2022.

The agency also recorded a further heatwave in September, showing how conditions associated with summer have increasingly extended into the early autumn period.

A Long-Term Warming Trend

AEMET's María José Guerrero has also pointed to a wider trend in the Balearics.

According to the agency, the islands have now experienced ten consecutive years in which the average summer temperature has been above normal.

Between 2010 and 2026, 12 years recorded above-normal summer temperatures.

Guerrero said the current outlook points towards temperatures continuing to increase over time, particularly maximum and minimum temperatures and the duration of heatwaves.

That does not mean every individual summer will be hotter than the previous one, but the long-term direction remains warmer.

What Ibiza Can Expect as Autumn Arrives

The forecast paints a relatively familiar picture for the first part of autumn.

September and October are expected to retain some of the warmth associated with summer, with occasional warm spells and plenty of opportunities for outdoor activity.

By November and December, temperatures should progressively fall, bringing more typically autumnal conditions.

Rainfall is expected to return closer to seasonal norms, although individual storms could still be intense.

From Record Summer to Warm Autumn

Ibiza is about to move from its hottest summer on record into an autumn that AEMET also expects to be warmer than normal.

The transition will not happen overnight.

September has already started with temperatures well above average, and the agency expects October, November and December to remain warmer than their historical norms when considered as a whole.

At the same time, the rainfall outlook is more encouraging after one of the driest summers in decades.

For Ibiza and Formentera, the coming season could therefore bring a combination of extended warmth and a return to more typical autumn rainfall.

After a summer defined by heat records, dry conditions and exceptionally warm nights, the next few months will show whether the islands can finally move towards a more balanced Mediterranean autumn, or whether the warmth of 2026 will continue to linger well beyond summer.