Balearic Airports Forecast to Near 50 Million Passengers by 2031 as Prohens Criticises Growth Plans

September 18, 2026

The three main airports in the Balearic Islands are forecast to handle almost 50 million passenger movements in 2031 under Spain's newly approved DORA III airport regulation plan.

The combined figure of 49.84 million passengers covers Palma, Ibiza and Menorca and represents a projected increase of around 2.12 million passenger movements compared with the 47.72 million forecast for 2027.

The figures have triggered a political response in the Balearics, where the regional government has been pursuing policies aimed at containing tourism growth.

49.84 Million Passengers Forecast for 2031

DORA III, the Airport Regulation Document covering the period from 2027 to 2031, was approved by the Spanish Council of Ministers on September 15.

Its traffic forecasts put the three main Balearic airports at 49.84 million passengers in 2031.

The figure is made up of:

  • Palma Airport: 35.67 million

  • Ibiza Airport: 9.72 million

  • Menorca Airport: 4.45 million

For comparison, the combined forecast for 2027 is 47.72 million.

The figures refer to passenger movements, meaning passengers arriving and departing, rather than unique individual visitors. A person flying into Ibiza and later flying home therefore generates two passenger movements.

Ibiza Forecast to Reach 9.72 Million

Ibiza Airport is forecast to handle 9.72 million passenger movements in 2031.

The DORA III forecast for 2027 is 9.17 million, representing an increase of approximately 550,000 annual passenger movements over the four-year period.

The forecast does not mean that Ibiza is guaranteed to receive 9.72 million passengers in 2031. It is a traffic projection used within the airport regulatory and investment planning process.

Ibiza Airport has already been operating at high annual passenger volumes. Aena recorded 9,138,224 passengers at the airport during 2025.

August 2026 Sets the Latest Context

The latest available Aena figures show that Ibiza Airport handled 1,519,201 passengers in August 2026, an increase of 2.5% compared with August 2025.

Between January and August 2026, the airport recorded 6,778,163 passenger movements, up 3% year on year.

Aena also recorded 63,056 aircraft operations during those eight months, an increase of 3.6%.

These figures are actual traffic statistics, while the DORA III numbers for 2027 and 2031 are forecasts.

More Than €1 Billion of Investment in the Balearics

DORA III includes approximately €1.03 billion of planned investment across the Balearic airport network between 2027 and 2031.

The allocation is approximately:

  • €621.6 million for Palma Airport

  • €229.7 million for Ibiza Airport

  • €170.7 million for Menorca Airport

  • €7.9 million for Son Bonet

Across the wider Aena network, the Spanish Government has approved almost €13 billion of investment for the 2027-2031 regulatory period.

The government says the programme is intended to adapt airport infrastructure to demand, while also addressing areas including safety, passenger services and airport operations.

Prohens Calls the Forecast "Frightening"

Balearic President Marga Prohens has strongly criticised the projected increase.

Speaking on September 16, she described the forecast of almost 50 million passengers as “frightening” and said it represented what she considered another example of Aena failing to take regional institutions sufficiently into account.

Prohens argued that continued growth in airport traffic conflicts with the Balearic Government's strategy of tourism restraint.

She also questioned how the islands could pursue limits in areas such as accommodation and other tourism-related pressures while airport traffic is being forecast to increase.

These are Prohens' political arguments about the implications of the DORA III forecasts, rather than a finding contained in the airport regulation document itself.

PSOE Offers a Different Interpretation

PSOE spokesman Marc Pons responded that the passenger figures are forecasts based on economic and tourism dynamics.

He argued that Aena is responding to expected demand and suggested that decisions taken by the Balearic Government could influence whether passenger numbers continue to grow.

The exchange reflects a broader disagreement between the regional and national political positions over tourism growth, airport planning and who should have greater influence over airport policy in the islands.

What the 50 Million Figure Does Not Mean

The 49.84 million figure should not be described as a newly announced passenger limit.

It is a forecast contained in DORA III.

It also does not mean that Aena is guaranteeing that the Balearics will receive 50 million individual tourists in 2031.

Airport passenger statistics count arrivals and departures. The three-airport total therefore measures passenger movements.

Nor does the forecast alone establish that all three airports are physically being expanded to accommodate exactly 49.84 million passengers.

The relationship between infrastructure investment, operational capacity and projected demand is part of the wider debate surrounding DORA III.

Ibiza's Airport Debate Continues

The new figures are particularly relevant to Ibiza because the island is already debating the scale and purpose of Aena's planned airport investment.

Aena's current Ibiza project has been described by the airport operator as a major remodelling focused on safety, operational efficiency and passenger experience.

Aena has previously stated that the Ibiza project does not increase the airport's hourly aircraft movement capacity.

At the same time, environmental organisations and other groups have questioned whether improvements to terminal infrastructure could facilitate higher passenger volumes over time.

The DORA III forecast of 9.72 million annual passenger movements for Ibiza in 2031 adds another figure to that ongoing discussion.

A Wider Balearic Tourism Debate

The airport figures arrive during a broader debate over how much tourism growth the Balearic Islands can accommodate.

The regional government has introduced or supported measures aimed at controlling pressures linked to accommodation, vehicles and visitor numbers.

At the same time, the Spanish Government's airport planning framework is based partly on forecasts of continued demand.

The two approaches are therefore not necessarily measuring the same thing: tourism policy seeks to influence pressure on the islands, while DORA III establishes the regulatory and investment framework for airports based on projected traffic.

Ibiza's Passenger Numbers Have Already Reached Record Levels

Ibiza Airport recorded more than 9.1 million passengers in 2025, its highest annual figure to date.

The airport also serves Formentera and is used by approximately 95% of people entering or leaving Ibiza and Formentera, according to Aena.

The latest 2026 figures indicate that passenger traffic has continued to grow during the current year, although the pace varies by month.

What Happens Next

The DORA III framework now establishes the airport investment and regulatory environment for the 2027-2031 period.

For Ibiza, that includes €229.7 million of planned investment and a traffic forecast rising from 9.17 million passenger movements in 2027 to 9.72 million in 2031.

Whether actual passenger numbers reach those forecasts will depend on future demand and wider economic and tourism conditions.

For the Balearic Government, however, the figures have already intensified the debate over whether airport planning is compatible with its stated policy of tourism containment.

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