Ibiza Airport is forecast to handle almost 9.72 million passengers in 2031, according to the final DORA III airport regulation approved by the Spanish Government this week.

The forecast represents an increase of around 545,000 passengers, or approximately 5.9%, compared with the 9.17 million passengers forecast for 2027.

At the same time, DORA III lists Ibiza Airport's annual capacity reference at 10 million passengers. The distinction is important because the airport's planned modernisation will significantly change the terminal while the annual capacity figure in the new regulatory document remains at 10 million.

DORA III approved for 2027-2031

The Council of Ministers approved the Documento de Regulación Aeroportuaria, known as DORA III, on September 15, 2026.

The new regulatory period begins on January 1, 2027 and covers five years of airport investment, traffic forecasts, capacity indicators, service standards and other regulatory conditions across the Aena network.

For Ibiza, the document sets out both the expected traffic and the infrastructure indicators that will apply during the period.

Passenger traffic forecast to rise by 5.9%

The official DORA III forecast places Ibiza Airport at 9,173,500 passengers in 2027.

By 2031, that figure rises to 9,718,800 passengers.

The difference is 545,300 passengers, equivalent to approximately 5.9% growth over the period.

These are forecasts, not a guaranteed number of passengers the airport will actually receive.

The figures are also different from real passenger statistics published during the current 2026 season.

The 10 million capacity figure remains

DORA III lists Ibiza Airport's annual airport capacity at 10 million passengers.

That figure should not be confused with the traffic forecast.

The document therefore allows for a situation in which the airport is forecast to process substantially more passengers over the next five years while remaining below its listed annual capacity reference.

At 9,173,500 passengers, the 2027 forecast represents about 91.7% of the 10 million figure.

At 9,718,800 passengers in 2031, the forecast would represent about 97.2%.

That would leave roughly 281,000 passengers between the 2031 forecast and the 10 million annual capacity reference.

Capacity has several different meanings

One reason the airport debate can be confusing is that airport capacity is not a single measurement.

DORA III separates annual passenger capacity from the capacity of individual airport systems.

For Ibiza, the document lists 40 aircraft movements per hour for the flight field, 45 aircraft per hour for the aircraft platform and 4,400 passengers per hour for the passenger terminal.

In other words, the number of passengers an airport can accommodate annually and the number of aircraft or passengers it can process during a particular hour are different measures.

The runway is not being expanded

The current airport modernisation focuses heavily on the terminal rather than the construction of a new runway.

Aena's project is designed to reorganise and modernise the terminal so it can meet changing European border and security requirements and improve the handling of passengers.

The company has said the airport needs additional boarding gates because Schengen and non-Schengen traffic can no longer use the same gates as flexibly as in the past.

Boarding gates to rise to 32

One of the most visible changes will be the renovation of the boarding area.

Aena plans to increase the total number of boarding gates to 32.

The project also includes eight new boarding bridges, which Aena says could increase the proportion of flights receiving direct bridge access from around 25% of operations in the high season to approximately 75%.

The objective is to improve passenger flow and comfort rather than simply add more flights.

New non-Schengen area planned

The project includes a new pier dedicated to passengers travelling outside the Schengen area.

A centralised passport-control system is also planned.

The changes are designed to separate Schengen and non-Schengen passenger flows and bring the airport into line with evolving European requirements.

Aena says the reorganisation should also help improve operational processes and punctuality.

Security controls will be redesigned

Another major part of the project involves the passenger security checkpoint.

Aena plans to introduce newer screening technology that will allow passengers to leave liquids and electronic devices inside their hand luggage during the security process.

The equipment requires more space than the existing installations, which is one of the reasons the internal layout of the terminal needs to be substantially reorganised.

Inter-island flights will have a dedicated area

The project also includes a differentiated boarding area for inter-island flights.

Aena plans to improve access to those gates through new ramps and lifts.

The intention is to make the process more practical for flights linking Ibiza with other Balearic Islands while improving accessibility for passengers.

Passenger facilities will also be renovated

The boarding-area refurbishment will extend beyond security and gates.

Aena has announced improvements to toilets, waiting areas, children's facilities and services for passengers with reduced mobility.

The plans also include new office space for airport employees, a passenger terrace and a larger VIP lounge.

Aena says the improvements are intended to respond to current operational requirements and passenger needs.

The final investment is lower than the earlier €229.7 million proposal

One of the most important details to clarify following approval of DORA III is the investment figure.

An earlier Aena proposal associated around €229.7 million with Ibiza during the 2027-2031 regulatory period.

The final DORA III approved on September 15, however, records €159.62 million in regulated investment for Ibiza over the five-year period.

That amount covers several categories of work rather than only the terminal refurbishment.

The final document allocates €55.246 million specifically to adaptation of the terminal building to new regulations, alongside investment in airfield and platform works, operational safety, information systems, support and replacement works, access and utilities, electrical systems and sustainability.

The reform is still being developed

The airport project is not yet at the stage of full construction.

Aena has been progressing with the procurement of technical and project-management services needed to develop the plans, manage the later construction process and bring the new facilities into service.

The final DORA document identifies the terminal adaptation as a long-term project, with the relevant regulated investment milestone extending beyond the five-year DORA period.

The physical works themselves therefore remain a future phase.

Aena has stressed that the project is about modernisation

Aena has consistently described the Ibiza Airport project as a remodelling rather than a proposal to increase the airport's flight capacity.

The company says the changes are driven by European security requirements, the need to separate passenger flows and the need to improve operational processes and service quality.

The additional gates, larger areas and new facilities are intended to address those operational needs.

The passenger forecast is already close to the capacity reference

The numbers in DORA III nevertheless show why the project remains politically and socially significant in Ibiza.

A forecast of 9.72 million passengers in 2031 would place the airport close to its 10 million annual capacity reference.

This does not mean that 10 million passengers will be reached, nor that the forecast represents a cap.

It means that, under the government's approved traffic scenario, annual passenger demand would approach the reference capacity level during the final year of the regulatory period.

Ibiza enters the new period from a high traffic base

The forecast also comes against a backdrop of already strong passenger traffic.

Ibiza Airport handled 9,138,224 passengers during 2025.

In the first eight months of 2026, the airport recorded 6,778,163 passengers. August alone accounted for 1,519,201 passengers.

Those figures are actual traffic statistics, while the 2027 and 2031 DORA numbers are forecasts. The two types of data should therefore not be treated as interchangeable.

What the figures mean for Ibiza

The new DORA III provides a clearer picture of where Ibiza Airport is expected to sit during the next regulatory period.

Passenger traffic is forecast to grow from 9.17 million in 2027 to 9.72 million in 2031.

The annual airport capacity reference remains at 10 million passengers.

At the same time, Aena is planning a major reorganisation of the terminal, with more boarding gates, new border-control arrangements, upgraded security technology and improved passenger facilities.

The central issue is therefore not simply whether the airport is receiving a larger building.

The key distinction is that the final regulatory document forecasts more passenger traffic while retaining a 10 million annual capacity reference, even as the terminal is substantially modernised to process passengers more efficiently and meet new regulatory requirements.

The next phase

The DORA III framework now provides the regulatory basis for the 2027-2031 period, but the detailed development of the Ibiza project will continue through the technical planning and procurement stages.

As those plans progress, the final construction design will determine the precise form, sequencing and timing of the works.

For now, the official figures show an airport projected to move closer to its existing annual capacity reference over the next five years, while undergoing a major terminal modernisation designed to improve how passengers are processed rather than to increase the airport's stated annual capacity figure.