A powerful El Niño is strengthening in the tropical Pacific, with international forecasters expecting the event to become exceptionally strong towards the end of 2026. Thousands of kilometres from Ibiza, the phenomenon is already attracting close attention because of its potential to influence weather patterns around the world.

For Ibiza and the Balearic Islands, however, the outlook is more nuanced. A strong El Niño does not automatically mean a particular type of winter weather in Spain, and current forecasts do not establish that the island will experience a specific series of cold spells or storms.

El Niño is strengthening

El Niño is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a recurring climate pattern involving changes in sea temperatures and atmospheric circulation across the tropical Pacific.

According to the latest NOAA assessment, El Niño strengthened further during August. Sea-surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific exceeded 3°C, while NOAA forecasts a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-27.

NOAA also estimates a 75% chance that the October-December 2026 period will reach its defined historic threshold for El Niño strength. That threshold means a three-month Niño 3.4 relative oceanic index of at least +2.5°C, exceeding the strength of previous events in the record dating back to 1950.

Why are people calling it 'Godzilla'?

The expression “Godzilla El Niño” is an informal nickname used for exceptionally powerful El Niño events. It is not an official meteorological classification.

What is officially being monitored is the strength and continued development of El Niño. The World Meteorological Organization says the event is firmly established and is expected to intensify further, potentially reaching very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of 2026.

The WMO also forecasts a near-100% likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027.

What could it mean for Spain?

The relationship between El Niño and European weather is much less direct than its influence on areas closer to the tropical Pacific.

A strong El Niño can affect large-scale atmospheric circulation, but what eventually happens in Spain depends on how those changes interact with other atmospheric patterns.

That means it would be misleading to say that a very strong El Niño guarantees a warm winter, a cold winter or unusually wet conditions across Spain.

Current seasonal forecasts provide a more useful picture of what is expected at present.

AEMET expects a warm autumn

Spain's state meteorological agency, AEMET, currently forecasts temperatures in the upper tercile with high probability across Spain during September, October and November 2026.

The warm signal is particularly pronounced over the eastern part of the peninsula, the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands.

For Ibiza, that means the current seasonal outlook points towards temperatures generally above the 1991-2020 reference average during the autumn period.

AEMET also gives the Mediterranean coast and the Balearic Islands a greater probability of precipitation being in the upper tercile during September-November.

That is a seasonal probability, rather than a prediction that every week or individual storm will be wetter than normal.

Ibiza enters autumn after an exceptionally hot summer

The outlook comes after an unusually hot 2026 across Spain.

AEMET reported on September 21 that the summer of 2026 was the hottest Spanish summer in the official series dating back to 1961. A reconstructed climate series extending back to 1869 also places 2026 as the hottest summer in at least the past 157 years, although AEMET notes that uncertainty increases further back in the historical record.

The average summer temperature across peninsular Spain was 24.5°C, which was 2.4°C above the 1991-2020 reference average.

The Balearic Islands also recorded an extremely hot summer.

The summer was also very dry in the Balearics

Heat was accompanied by a lack of rainfall.

AEMET classified the summer as the third driest on record for peninsular Spain, behind 1994 and 2016. In the Balearic Islands, the summer was predominantly classified as very dry.

This makes the current autumn rainfall outlook particularly relevant for Ibiza, although the seasonal forecast cannot determine how much rain the island will actually receive from individual weather systems.

What about winter?

The latest European seasonal guidance currently leans towards generally mild winter conditions.

Copernicus Climate Change Service said in its September 10 seasonal forecast that early indications for the European winter favour above-average temperatures across virtually all European land areas.

The same outlook indicated a wetter-than-average season across much of Europe, although the signal is weaker towards the southern and northern edges of the continent.

These are early seasonal indications and not a detailed forecast for Ibiza. Copernicus also stresses that uncertainty increases as forecasts extend further into the future.

Could Ibiza still have cold spells?

Yes, individual cold episodes cannot be ruled out.

A generally mild seasonal forecast does not mean every day will be warm. Weather patterns can shift considerably during a winter, and short-lived cold outbreaks can occur even during seasons that finish with an above-average temperature overall.

However, there is currently no basis for presenting a specific severe cold spell in Ibiza as an expected consequence of the developing El Niño.

The exact interaction between El Niño and European atmospheric circulation will become clearer as the event develops and forecasting systems are updated.

What should Ibiza expect for now?

The clearest message from the current forecasts is that Ibiza is heading into an autumn with a strong probability of above-normal temperatures.

AEMET also currently sees a higher probability of above-normal precipitation across the Balearic Islands during September-November.

Looking further ahead, European seasonal guidance is leaning towards a generally mild winter, while the powerful El Niño is expected to remain established into early 2027.

That does not provide a precise forecast for individual storms, rainfall totals or cold spells in Ibiza. Those details will only become clearer through shorter-range forecasts as the relevant weather systems approach.

Why the developing El Niño matters

The 2026 El Niño is attracting attention because of its expected strength. NOAA currently puts the probability of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter at more than 90%, while the WMO expects it to persist through February 2027.

For Ibiza, the most useful approach is therefore to watch the developing climate pattern alongside the regular updates from AEMET and European forecasting services rather than treating the El Niño itself as a direct forecast for the island.

For now, the official outlook points towards a warmer-than-normal autumn in the Balearics and early indications of generally mild conditions across Europe this winter, while the detailed day-to-day weather remains much less certain.