AEMET forecasts point to a change in weather from Saturday, 17 October, with rain becoming more likely on Sunday and potentially continuing into the start of next week. Authorities urge residents to follow updated forecasts as uncertainty remains over the areas most affected.

Ibiza and Formentera are preparing for a spell of unsettled weather, with forecasts indicating the possibility of heavy and persistent rainfall from the weekend of 17 and 18 October.

Spain’s State Meteorological Agency, AEMET, has warned of a developing weather system that could bring intense precipitation to the Balearic Islands and parts of the Mediterranean coast. The forecast scenario involves colder air moving over the peninsula, the possible formation of an isolated upper-level depression known as a DANA, and humid air arriving from the Mediterranean.

The timing and distribution of the heaviest rainfall remain uncertain. Forecasts suggest that conditions could begin to deteriorate during the second half of Saturday, with more widespread rainfall possible on Sunday.

Sunday Could Bring the Most Persistent Rain

The forecast points to increasing instability across the Pityusic Islands from Saturday, with more cloud, showers and the possibility of thunderstorms.

Sunday, 18 October, is expected to be a particularly unsettled day, with rain potentially becoming more widespread across the Balearics and the Mediterranean coast.

Some areas could experience locally heavy or persistent downpours. Where intense rainfall develops, water may accumulate quickly, increasing the risk of surface runoff and sudden rises in torrents and other flood-prone areas.

These are forecast risks, not confirmation that severe conditions will affect every part of Ibiza or Formentera. The eventual impact will depend on the development and movement of the weather system.

A DANA Could Extend the Unsettled Conditions Into Next Week

The possible DANA is expected to play an important role in determining where the heaviest precipitation develops.

A DANA forms when a pocket of cold air becomes isolated high in the atmosphere. When combined with moist air near the surface, it can increase atmospheric instability and support the development of showers and thunderstorms.

The forecast scenario also includes humid easterly winds bringing additional moisture from the Mediterranean.

Rain could continue into Monday, 19 October, and Tuesday, 20 October, although the duration and intensity of the episode remain dependent on the system’s final trajectory.

Catalonia and the Valencian Community are among the other areas identified as potentially exposed to the unsettled conditions.

Temperatures Expected to Fall

The change in weather is also expected to bring temperatures closer to seasonal levels following several unusually warm days for mid-October.

The precise temperature change will vary by location and day, while cloud, rainfall and wind conditions may also affect how the weather feels.

Safety Advice for Residents and Visitors

With the possibility of intense downpours, residents and visitors should keep checking official weather updates and take care when travelling during periods of heavy rain.

Authorities recommend avoiding torrents, drainage channels and other areas susceptible to flooding during intense rainfall. Drivers should also avoid parking vehicles in flood-prone locations.

People planning outdoor activities or travelling between Ibiza and Formentera should check conditions and any relevant transport updates before setting off.

What to Expect in Ibiza and Formentera

• Friday, 16 October: Generally more stable conditions are forecast ahead of the weekend change.

• Saturday, 17 October: Increasing cloud and a growing possibility of showers and thunderstorms.

• Sunday, 18 October: A higher likelihood of widespread rain, with locally heavy downpours possible.

• Monday and Tuesday, 19 and 20 October: Further rainfall remains possible, depending on the movement of the weather system.

These are forecast trends rather than guarantees for every location or time of day. AEMET’s updated predictions and official weather warnings should be consulted as the weekend approaches.

The main concern is the possibility of intense rainfall developing over a short period, rather than a certainty that the whole of Ibiza and Formentera will experience the same conditions.