The Balearic Islands are pushing for greater involvement in decisions affecting their airports after Spain approved the new five-year Airport Regulation Document, DORA III, which forecasts passenger traffic at Palma Airport rising to almost 35.7 million a year by 2031.

The document, approved by the Spanish Council of Ministers on September 15, covers Aena's regulated airport system from 2027 to 2031.

For the Balearics, the decision has renewed the debate over how much influence the islands should have over airport planning, investment and future air traffic.

Palma forecast to reach 35.7 million passengers

DORA III forecasts 34,267,700 passengers at Palma Airport in 2027, rising to 35,665,600 in 2031.

That compares with the 33,806,427 passengers actually recorded at Palma in 2025.

The DORA figures are forecasts rather than a formal passenger target. Spain's airport regulation document says its projections take into account several traffic models as well as anticipated capacity limitations and the timing of planned infrastructure works.

Nearly 50 million passengers across three Balearic airports

The figures for the wider Balearics also point to continued growth in the government's regulated traffic projections.

Ibiza Airport is forecast to handle 9,173,500 passengers in 2027 and 9,718,800 in 2031.

Menorca is forecast at 4,283,900 passengers in 2027 and 4,449,300 in 2031.

Combined, the three airports would handle around 49.8 million passengers in 2031 under the DORA forecast.

These figures refer to airport passenger traffic and should not be interpreted as the number of individual tourists visiting the islands.

DORA III includes €686.6 million in Balearic investment

The new regulatory period also includes substantial investment across the three Balearic airports.

The DORA document allocates €686.6 million in regulated investment to the Balearic Islands between 2027 and 2031.

Palma accounts for €410.2 million, Ibiza for €159.6 million and Menorca for €110.1 million.

The investment programme covers a range of measures, including terminal improvements, safety, information systems, airport access, electrical systems, operational works and sustainability.

Investment does not automatically mean airport expansion

The distinction between investment and passenger growth has become central to the Balearic debate.

The DORA document includes investment in infrastructure designed to maintain and improve airport operations, safety and passenger services.

Not every investment is an expansion designed to accommodate more passengers.

The document itself includes spending on safety, information systems, sustainability, facilities and other improvements in addition to capacity-related works.

Balearic Government says it objected to linking investment with passenger growth

The Balearic Government says it raised concerns before DORA III was approved.

The regional administration says it wrote to Aena on May 6 asking that investments in the Balearic airports should not be linked to increases in passenger numbers.

According to the Govern, its proposals focused on improvements intended to reduce the impact of airport infrastructure on the islands' limited territory, rather than encouraging additional passenger growth.

The regional government says some of its requests were not incorporated in the final document.

Mallorca calls for more control over its main airport

The issue has prompted renewed calls for greater regional involvement in airport decision-making.

Mallorca's tourism councillor, Guillem Ginard, said the island needed a united position focused on residents and argued that Mallorca should have greater influence over decisions affecting its main airport.

He also called for airport co-management and used the phrase that Mallorca should not be treated as Aena's “cash register”.

That is Ginard's political characterization of the situation rather than an official description of how Aena operates.

Airport co-management proposal is before Congress

The Balearic Parliament has already submitted a bill proposing co-management of the Balearic Islands' airports of general interest.

The proposal would expand the role of the existing Airport Coordination Committee and give the autonomous government and island councils greater participation in strategic airport planning and management.

However, the proposal is not yet law.

Congress currently lists the initiative as awaiting consideration by the Plenary.

Airports remain a state responsibility

A key reason for the dispute is the division of powers.

Airports classified as being of general interest remain a state responsibility under Spain's constitutional and legal framework.

The Balearic co-management proposal is therefore seeking to create a stronger institutional role for the regional and island authorities within that state framework rather than simply transferring ownership or full control of the airports to the autonomous community.

Ibiza is also part of the DORA III debate

Although the latest political criticism has focused heavily on Palma, Ibiza is directly affected by the same regulatory framework.

The DORA forecast puts Ibiza Airport at almost 9.72 million passengers in 2031, compared with just over 9.17 million in 2027.

The document also allocates around €159.6 million in regulated investment to the airport over the five-year period.

Those investments include terminal adaptation, airfield and apron works, security improvements, information systems, access and urbanisation works and sustainability measures.

Ibiza's airport expansion debate continues

Airport planning has already become a major issue in Ibiza because of concerns about the island's territorial and environmental capacity.

A parliamentary initiative presented earlier this year called for the Ibiza airport expansion project to be reviewed and for airport planning to take account of the island's social, environmental and territorial limits.

That initiative also called for progress towards a model of airport co-management.

Those proposals remain part of the political and legislative debate and have not altered the DORA III figures now approved by the Spanish Government.

The DORA forecast is not a passenger cap

Another important distinction is what the 35.7 million figure actually represents.

DORA III does not state that Palma must or will handle exactly 35.6656 million passengers in 2031.

Instead, the figure is the traffic forecast incorporated into the regulatory document for that year.

The document says its forecasts were developed using information from Eurocontrol, Aena's own economic models and international aviation-sector forecasts, with adjustments for airport capacity constraints.

Current traffic is already close to the forecast

Palma is already operating at a level relatively close to the new long-term forecast.

Aena recorded 33.8 million passengers at Palma in 2025, a record for the airport.

The DORA III figure for 2031 is around 1.86 million passengers higher than the 2025 total.

The forecast therefore represents continued growth rather than a sudden doubling of passenger traffic.

The wider Balearic question is about capacity

The political disagreement is not simply about whether airports should receive investment.

The broader issue is how airport infrastructure should be managed on islands where land, transport networks, water resources, housing and environmental capacity are finite.

The Balearic Government has argued that regional institutions need a greater role in decisions that have consequences beyond the airport itself.

The Spanish airport system, meanwhile, remains governed nationally through Aena and the state regulatory framework.

Aena's regulated investment programme

The DORA system determines the economic and investment framework for Aena's regulated airport network over five-year periods.

For the 2027-2031 period, the document establishes investment and service parameters for 45 airports and two heliports across Spain.

The programme includes nearly €10 billion in regulated capital expenditure across the network.

The Balearic allocation represents a significant share of that programme because Palma, Ibiza and Menorca are among the busiest airports in the Spanish network.

What the new figures mean for the islands

The approved forecasts suggest that the Balearic airports are expected to continue handling very high passenger volumes through the end of the decade.

For Mallorca, Palma is forecast to rise from 34.27 million passengers in 2027 to 35.67 million in 2031.

For Ibiza, the projection rises from 9.17 million to 9.72 million.

Menorca's forecast increases from 4.28 million to 4.45 million.

Together, that amounts to nearly 50 million annual passenger movements across the three airports by 2031 under the DORA scenario.

The political debate is not over

Approval of DORA III does not end the discussion over airport governance.

The Balearic Government continues to argue for greater regional involvement, while the proposed airport co-management legislation remains before Congress.

The final outcome of that legislative process could determine whether the islands gain a stronger institutional role in future strategic decisions.

For now, however, DORA III has been formally approved and its 2027-2031 traffic forecasts and investment programme are in force.

A five-year plan with long-term implications

The debate over DORA III goes beyond a single passenger forecast.

For the Balearic Islands, airport traffic affects transport connections, tourism, employment, infrastructure and the wider pressure placed on the islands' territory.

The approved document provides a national framework for the next five years, while the Balearic institutions continue to seek a greater role in deciding how the airports develop.

For Palma, the headline figure is a forecast of almost 35.7 million passengers in 2031. For Ibiza, it is almost 9.72 million.

Whether those forecasts are ultimately reached, exceeded or missed will depend on future demand, capacity, infrastructure and aviation trends over the coming five years.