AEMET forecasts a marked change in weather from Sunday, 18 October, with a high probability of rain early next week. Forecasters warn that the location and intensity of the heaviest rainfall remain uncertain.

Ibiza and Formentera are preparing for a significant change in weather, with a developing atmospheric disturbance expected to bring unsettled conditions to the Balearic Islands from this weekend.

The Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) has warned of the possibility of intense and persistent rainfall across parts of the Balearic Islands and the Mediterranean coast from Saturday, 17 October. The most unsettled conditions are expected from Sunday, although the precise distribution of rainfall remains uncertain.

The forecast follows several days of unusually warm, stable weather for mid-October. The approaching system is also expected to bring cooler temperatures, bringing conditions closer to seasonal averages.

Spain's Civil Protection authority has urged the public to follow forecast updates because the areas receiving the heaviest rainfall cannot yet be determined with confidence.

Sunday Could Mark the Start of the Heaviest Rain

According to the forecast published by AEMET, Saturday is expected to be a transitional day in Ibiza, with cloud increasing as the wider weather system develops.

Conditions are forecast to become more unsettled on Sunday, 18 October, when rain is expected to become more likely across Ibiza and Formentera.

For Ibiza, the municipal forecast shows a 90% probability of precipitation on Sunday, with temperatures expected to range from approximately 14°C to 23°C.

The outlook for Monday, 19 October, is wetter. AEMET's forecast for Ibiza gives a 100% probability of precipitation, with temperatures between approximately 14°C and 25°C.

These percentages refer to the probability of precipitation, not the likelihood of torrential rain or flooding. The intensity and amount of rainfall will depend on how the weather system develops.

Rain Could Continue Into Tuesday and Wednesday

The unsettled conditions are forecast to continue into the first half of next week.

AEMET's outlook indicates a high probability of rainfall on Tuesday, 20 October, followed by a gradual improvement from Wednesday, 21 October. Showers could nevertheless persist, particularly during the first part of Wednesday.

Formentera is also expected to experience the unsettled weather. Its municipal forecast similarly indicates a high probability of rain on Sunday and Monday.

However, the forecast for Ibiza should not automatically be applied to Formentera, as rainfall amounts, wind speeds and local conditions may differ between the islands.

Could Wind Gusts Reach 70 km/h?

The initial report highlighted the possibility of wind gusts reaching 70 kilometres per hour during the first days of next week, which could affect maritime activities if the conditions materialise.

However, the municipal forecasts consulted for Ibiza and Formentera show lower gust values in their displayed forecast periods. The 70 km/h figure should therefore be treated as a broader forecast possibility rather than a confirmed wind speed expected across both islands.

Residents, boat operators and people planning sea crossings should check the latest AEMET maritime forecasts and any official coastal or wind warnings before travelling.

Why Is a DANA Expected to Affect the Weather?

A DANA, short for Depresión Aislada en Niveles Altos, is an isolated depression at high atmospheric levels. It can contribute to unstable weather, particularly when it interacts with moist air and other atmospheric systems.

AEMET has described a developing trough over the Iberian Peninsula and the possible isolation of a DANA to its north. Combined with humid air flowing towards the Mediterranean coast, this configuration could produce intense and persistent rainfall in parts of the Balearic Islands.

The agency has warned that some areas of the Mediterranean could experience very intense downpours. However, this broader warning does not mean torrential rainfall is certain in Ibiza or Formentera.

The eventual impact will depend on the system's position, movement and interaction with local weather conditions.

Civil Protection Issues Safety Advice

Spain's Civil Protection authority has issued recommendations for periods of intense rain and potential flooding.

Residents and visitors are advised to:

• Reduce speed and take extra care when driving in heavy rain.

• Avoid driving or walking through flooded roads, underpasses or other areas covered by water.

• Avoid parking vehicles in flood-prone areas where rapidly rising water could damage or carry them away.

• Stay away from torrents, river channels and low-lying areas during intense rainfall.

• Follow official weather updates and instructions from emergency services.

The authority also advises people to move to higher ground if they become surrounded by floodwater and to follow official instructions if evacuation becomes necessary.

Forecasts Remain Subject to Change

The coming weather episode could bring a substantial change after Ibiza's unusually warm mid-October conditions. Rainfall is forecast to become more likely from Sunday, with the highest precipitation probabilities early next week.

Nevertheless, AEMET has stressed that uncertainty remains over where the heaviest rainfall will occur and how much rain individual areas will receive.

Residents and visitors should consult the latest forecasts and official warnings as the system approaches, rather than relying solely on predictions published several days in advance.