The weather is set to become more unsettled across Ibiza, Formentera and the wider Balearic Islands as September comes to an end, with clouds and occasional rainfall expected alongside temperatures that will remain above the seasonal average.

The change will initially be relatively modest. AEMET expects occasional, generally weak and isolated rainfall during the final days of September, while daytime temperatures remain unusually high for the time of year. A more significant change is currently anticipated for the first part of October.

Temperatures Remain High Despite the Change

The arrival of more cloud and occasional rain will not immediately bring an end to the warm conditions.

AEMET's forecast cited by the Balearic weather service indicates that maximum temperatures across the islands could still reach between 28 and 33ºC during the coming days.

For Wednesday, September 30, maximum temperatures are expected to reach around 29 to 33ºC across the Balearics, while Thursday should see a modest decline, with highs generally between 27 and 30ºC.

The temperatures remain notably high compared with the normal value for this point in the year. AEMET puts the typical maximum temperature for the period at around 25.5ºC.

Clouds and Occasional Rain Through the Week

The weather pattern will gradually become more unsettled.

During Tuesday and Wednesday, cloud cover is expected to increase, with the possibility of weak and isolated rainfall.

Thursday is also expected to bring cloudy or overcast skies and a continued chance of occasional showers. Friday should follow a similar pattern, with cloudy conditions and occasional precipitation remaining possible.

The weekend forecast currently points towards broadly similar conditions, with intervals of cloud, occasional rainfall and temperatures either falling slightly or remaining relatively stable.

The current AEMET forecast for Eivissa also shows the changing pattern, although the exact timing and intensity of rainfall can change as new forecast updates are issued. AEMET notes that its municipal hourly forecasts are model-based and can differ from forecasts produced by its meteorologists.

Why Is the Weather Changing?

The current change is linked to the influence of a trough, which is allowing more unsettled conditions to reach the Balearic Islands.

According to AEMET, this feature is expected to bring more substantial rainfall to parts of mainland Spain, while the Balearics should initially experience less significant precipitation.

This means that the return of rain to Ibiza should not currently be interpreted as a major storm event. The forecast for the immediate days is for occasional and generally weak precipitation.

A Wetter Pattern Is Possible Next Week

The more notable part of the forecast comes after the weekend.

AEMET has indicated that rainfall could become more intense during the week beginning October 5, with precipitation amounts potentially around 50% above the usual levels.

The agency has also indicated that weather warnings could become necessary if the situation develops as currently anticipated.

However, this remains a forecast rather than a confirmed weather event.

AEMET's weekly outlook published on September 25 also forecasts rainfall across the Balearic Islands during October 5-11, but specifically warns that uncertainty increases considerably at that forecasting range and that the prediction may change significantly with subsequent updates.

No Immediate Major Weather Warning for Ibiza

At the time of checking, AEMET's current warning system did not show an active warning for Ibiza and Formentera for the immediate period covered by its published alerts.

This is important because the current forecast should not be presented as an imminent severe-weather episode.

The expected weather over the next several days is instead a gradual transition towards more cloud, occasional showers and somewhat lower temperatures, while the possibility of a more significant rainfall episode is being watched for the following week.

What to Expect in Ibiza

For Ibiza and Formentera, the practical outlook is:

• More cloud compared with the recent predominantly sunny conditions.

• Occasional showers remain possible through the end of September and into the weekend.

• Rainfall is currently expected to be generally weak and isolated during the immediate period.

• Temperatures will remain relatively high, with some days reaching around 30ºC or above.

• A more unsettled and potentially wetter pattern is currently forecast for the week beginning October 5.

• AEMET's longer-range forecast remains subject to change, particularly for the more intense rainfall scenario.

For anyone visiting Ibiza at the end of September, the forecast therefore points towards a mixed-weather period rather than a sudden end to the warm conditions.

The island can still experience warm days, but visitors should be prepared for more cloud and the possibility of passing showers.

Ibiza One Stop Accuracy Note

The current information does not support describing an imminent major storm or DANA affecting Ibiza.

AEMET's current forecast points to occasional, generally weak rainfall during the final days of September, while temperatures remain above normal. The potentially more significant development is the forecast for the week beginning October 5, when AEMET currently expects wetter conditions across the Balearics and says rainfall could be around 50% above normal.

That longer-range forecast carries greater uncertainty, and AEMET explicitly notes that predictions for October 5-11 may change substantially as new information becomes available.

There was also no active Ibiza/Formentera warning shown in the AEMET warning information checked for the immediate period.