A political dispute over the future of the Balearic Islands' airports has intensified, with the Balearic Government and Spain's Transport Ministry taking different positions over passenger forecasts, airport investment and the role of tourism growth.

The disagreement centres on the Airport Regulation Document for 2027-2031, known as DORA III, approved by Spain's Council of Ministers on September 15.

The document establishes the regulatory framework for Aena's airports for the five-year period, including investment and airport-charge planning. It also contains forecasts for future passenger traffic.

What DORA III Says

DORA III covers Aena's airport network and provides for almost €13 billion in investment across the Spanish network between 2027 and 2031.

The Spanish Government says the document is based on forecasts of passenger demand and is used to determine the resources and investment required to provide airport services.

The approved framework anticipates average annual passenger growth of 1.8% across the network during the regulatory period. Airport charges are scheduled to increase by an average of 0.33% per year.

For the Balearic Islands, the planning has prompted particular concern because of the islands' existing debate over tourism pressure and limits on visitor-related growth.

Why the Balearic Government Objects

The Balearic Government says it wants airport investment to focus on modernisation, safety and improved services rather than investment being connected to increased passenger numbers.

On September 18, the regional government confirmed that it had written to Aena asking for investments included in DORA III for the Balearic airports not to be linked to increases in passenger numbers.

The regional government's position is that airport policy should be consistent with its wider strategy of containing tourism growth, including measures affecting tourist accommodation and other visitor capacity.

President Marga Prohens has also criticised projections for the three main Balearic airports reaching around 50 million passenger movements by 2031, describing that prospect as unacceptable within the context of the islands' tourism-containment policy.

It is important to note that passenger figures at airports count arrivals and departures. They do not represent 50 million individual tourists.

Madrid Says the Figures Are Forecasts, Not Quotas

Spain's Transport Minister Óscar Puente has rejected the interpretation that DORA III establishes how many people will be able to travel through the Balearic airports.

Puente has argued that the passenger figures are estimates based on market dynamics and are used as part of the economic and regulatory planning process.

His position is that airports respond to demand rather than determining the number of tourists who choose to visit a destination.

He has also argued that limiting airport capacity would not be the appropriate mechanism for addressing tourist saturation, pointing instead to decisions concerning accommodation and tourism supply at regional level.

A Dispute Over What Airport Investment Means

The disagreement therefore involves more than the physical expansion of airport infrastructure.

The Balearic Government says it wants better and safer airports without investment being used to facilitate continued growth in passenger numbers.

The Spanish Government's position is that airport infrastructure must be planned according to expected demand and the costs of providing services, while passenger forecasts do not themselves establish a legal limit or guarantee that the forecast number of passengers will actually be reached.

DORA III is formally a regulatory and investment document. It does not create a specific passenger quota for Ibiza Airport or the other Balearic airports.

Ibiza Airport Is Part of the Debate

Ibiza Airport is included within the wider DORA III planning framework alongside Palma and Menorca.

For Ibiza, the issue is particularly relevant because airport infrastructure, tourism demand and the island's discussions about managing visitor numbers are closely connected.

However, it would be inaccurate to describe the DORA III passenger forecasts as an instruction to Ibiza Airport to increase its capacity by a specific number of passengers.

The figures are forecasts used within the regulatory planning process, while the political dispute concerns what those forecasts and the associated investments mean for the future development of the islands.

The Wider Context

The disagreement follows several weeks of political and public debate over the future scale of tourism in the Balearics.

There have also been calls for greater regional involvement in airport management. A proposed Balearic law intended to give the islands greater influence over matters including flight numbers and airport charges was recently blocked from proceeding by the Spanish Government.

The current dispute is therefore part of a broader question over how responsibility for managing tourism, transport infrastructure and airport policy should be divided between the regional and national authorities.

For Ibiza, the practical question remains how future airport investment can improve facilities and connectivity while fitting within the island's wider debate about tourism pressure and sustainable visitor levels.