A powerful El Niño is strengthening across the tropical Pacific, with international climate agencies expecting the event to become very strong during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-27.

The phenomenon is thousands of kilometres from Ibiza, but its potential influence on global atmospheric circulation has prompted increased attention to what it could mean for the months ahead in Spain and the Balearic Islands.

For Ibiza, however, there is an important caveat. El Niño does not translate into a simple prediction of warmer, colder, wetter or drier weather for the island. The current Spanish and European forecasts provide a more useful indication of what may lie ahead.

El Niño is strengthening rapidly

According to the latest NOAA assessment, issued on September 10, El Niño strengthened further during August.

Sea-surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific exceeded 3°C, while the Niño-3.4 index reached +1.8°C. NOAA currently gives a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-27.

NOAA also estimates a 75% probability that the October-December 2026 period will reach its defined historic threshold, based on a three-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index value of +2.5°C or higher. The comparison covers El Niño events recorded since 1950.

What is 'El Niño Godzilla'?

The term “Godzilla El Niño” is an informal nickname used to describe exceptionally powerful El Niño events.

It is not an official classification used by meteorological agencies. The official terminology currently being used by NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization describes the developing 2026 event as a potentially very strong El Niño.

The current event has attracted attention because forecasts indicate that it could continue strengthening towards the end of 2026.

The WMO expects El Niño to continue through winter

The World Meteorological Organization says El Niño became firmly established by mid-August 2026.

Its latest update, published on September 3, gives a near-100% likelihood that the event will persist through both September-November 2026 and December 2026-February 2027. Forecasts indicate that El Niño could reach very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of the year.

The WMO also stresses that a stronger El Niño can increase the likelihood of significant changes to temperature and rainfall patterns around the world, but its strength does not directly determine the size of the impact in any individual region.

What does this mean for Spain?

There is no straightforward El Niño formula for Spanish weather.

El Niño has a much more direct influence on weather patterns in parts of the Pacific region. Its effects over Europe depend on how the Pacific signal interacts with other atmospheric circulation patterns.

That means the presence of a very strong El Niño does not automatically mean Spain will experience an unusually warm or unusually cold winter.

The latest seasonal forecasts currently point towards generally mild conditions across Europe, although uncertainty increases further into the future.

Spain is currently forecast to have a warm autumn

For Ibiza, one of the most relevant forecasts comes from AEMET, Spain's state meteorological agency.

AEMET's September-November 2026 seasonal outlook gives a high probability of temperatures being in the upper tercile across the whole of Spain. The warm signal is particularly strong across the eastern third of mainland Spain, the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands.

That means Ibiza is currently within an area expected to experience temperatures above the 1991-2020 reference average during the autumn period.

AEMET also gives the Mediterranean coast and Balearic Islands a greater probability of rainfall being in the upper tercile during September-November.

AEMET's winter outlook is still broader than a day-to-day forecast

AEMET's seasonal forecasts are probabilistic. They describe the likelihood of a three-month period falling into different temperature and precipitation categories rather than predicting individual storms, cold snaps or rainfall events.

This is particularly important for Ibiza, where a season that finishes warmer than average can still include individual periods of cooler weather or heavy rain.

Spain has just recorded an exceptionally hot summer

The developing El Niño comes after one of the hottest summers ever recorded in Spain.

AEMET reported on September 21 that the summer of 2026 was the hottest in Spain since at least 1869 when combining the official historical series with a reconstructed climate record. The official series begins in 1961.

The average temperature in peninsular Spain during June-August was 24.5°C, which was 2.4°C above the 1991-2020 reference average.

AEMET also described the Balearic Islands as experiencing an extremely hot summer.

The Balearics also experienced a very dry summer

The heat was accompanied by particularly low rainfall.

AEMET says the summer of 2026 was the third driest on record for peninsular Spain, with only 1994 and 2016 being drier. The Balearic Islands were classified as having a predominantly very dry summer.

The agency is currently forecasting an increased probability of above-normal precipitation in the Balearic Islands during September-November, although this does not indicate how much rainfall Ibiza will receive from individual weather systems.

What about winter in Ibiza?

Current European seasonal guidance is leaning towards a mild winter.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service forecast published on September 10 says early indications favour above-average temperatures across virtually all European land areas during winter as a whole. It also points towards wetter-than-average conditions across much of Europe, although the signal is less clear towards the southern and northern edges of the continent.

This is not a specific forecast for Ibiza and should not be interpreted as a guarantee of mild weather throughout the winter.

Copernicus notes that the forecast uncertainty increases as the event develops and that climate models do not entirely agree on how strong the El Niño peak will become.

Could Ibiza still see cold spells?

A mild seasonal forecast does not rule out individual periods of colder weather.

Seasonal forecasts describe the overall probability for a three-month period rather than the conditions of every day. A warmer-than-average winter can still contain short-lived cold episodes.

At present, however, there is not sufficient official evidence to say that Ibiza should expect a particular cold spell as a result of El Niño.

The WMO's warning is important here: even when El Niño is exceptionally strong, the size and nature of its effects vary from region to region.

So what should Ibiza watch for?

For the immediate outlook, the strongest signal is continued warmth.

AEMET currently expects above-normal temperatures across Spain during September-November, with the Balearic Islands among the areas where the warm signal is particularly strong. The agency also currently sees a greater probability of above-normal rainfall in the Balearics during the same period.

Looking further ahead, European seasonal guidance currently favours a generally mild winter, while NOAA and the WMO expect the strong El Niño to remain established into early 2027.

Why the 2026 El Niño is attracting attention

The main reason for the headlines is the potential strength of the event.

NOAA currently gives a greater than 90% probability of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter, while its latest outlook gives a 75% chance that October-December will reach its defined historic threshold.

For Ibiza, the important point is not that the island is guaranteed to experience a particular type of winter weather, but that a major global climate pattern is developing at the same time that Spain is already experiencing unusually warm conditions.

Further updates from AEMET, NOAA, the WMO and European forecasting services will provide a clearer picture as the event approaches its expected peak later in 2026.

What happens next?

The developing El Niño will continue to be monitored closely over the coming months.

For Ibiza residents, businesses and visitors, the most reliable picture will come from combining the wider El Niño outlook with AEMET's regional seasonal forecasts and, as winter approaches, its shorter-range weather forecasts.

For now, the confirmed picture is a strengthening and potentially very strong El Niño, a high probability of above-normal temperatures in the Balearic Islands during the autumn, and early European indications of a generally mild winter.

The precise impact on Ibiza remains uncertain, and it would be premature to present any particular winter scenario as guaranteed.